Salford
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.97
Northampton
23%
Fair odds 4.38
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Salford | Draw | Northampton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Elo model | 58% | 25% | 17% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Salford
Salford are rated 88 points above Northampton (1296 to 1207), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Salford
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Salford's chance of winning and takes the same from Northampton's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Salford
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.0. Salford score 0.8 a match against an average side (4th in League Two); Northampton concede 1.9 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Salford
Salford WWWWW, gained 38 rating points; Northampton LDWLW, gained 5 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Salford won 2, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SalfordNorthamptonSalford
6/10 over 2.5
22 scored
9 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/26
10/31
Northampton
0/10 over 2.5
8 scored
8 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Salford | Draw | Northampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Salford | 27%3.70 | 3%30.21 | 1%— |
| Level | 21%4.84 | 16%6.29 | 8%13.26 |
| Northampton | 4%27.17 | 6%16.34 | 15%6.69 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Salford wins1Northampton wins- W Salford vs Northampton 2-1
- W Northampton vs Salford 0-1
- L Northampton vs Salford 1-0
- D Salford vs Northampton 2-2
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Salford's side.