Bristol City
37%
Fair odds 2.73Bookmakers 35%
Norwich
Model pick
37%
Fair odds 2.70Bookmakers 38%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Bristol City | Draw | Norwich | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Elo model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Best price on offer | 2.75 | 3.50 | 2.57 |
Team news
- Lorent Tolaj Out
Sports Mole reports no fresh injury concerns after the midweek game; Tolaj's return is expected too soon for this match. Starter status is not stated in the source.
- Kenny McLean Out
- Pelle Mattsson Out
A less reliable aggregator (2 days old) lists Ahmed, Diallo and Touré as unavailable for injury or suspension, but gives no detail, so they are not listed here; Norwich's last win came at Derby in midweek.
Allowing for this news: Bristol City 38%, draw 27%, Norwich 36% (xG 1.41 – 1.36). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, pinkun.com, pinkun.com, m.football-lineups.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Norwich
Norwich are rated 47 points above Bristol City (1495 to 1448), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Bristol City
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Bristol City's chance of winning and takes the same from Norwich's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.4. Bristol City score 1.1 a match against an average side (15th in Championship); Norwich concede 1.3 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Norwich
Bristol City LWDLL, lost 16 rating points; Norwich WWWLL, gained 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Bristol City 35%, Norwich 38%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Bristol City won 4, drew 1 and lost 3 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Bristol CityNorwichBristol City
4/10 over 2.5
9 scored
13 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/15
09/18
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/04
Norwich
8/10 over 2.5
22 scored
17 conceded
09/05
09/09
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 53%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Bristol City | Draw | Norwich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City | 23%4.37 | 6%17.51 | 3%38.02 |
| Level | 12%8.12 | 15%6.69 | 14%7.16 |
| Norwich | 2%52.08 | 5%21.51 | 21%4.77 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Bristol City wins3Norwich wins- L Bristol City vs Norwich 2-4
- W Norwich vs Bristol City 0-1
- W Bristol City vs Norwich 2-1
- W Norwich vs Bristol City 0-2
- D Norwich vs Bristol City 1-1
- L Bristol City vs Norwich 1-2
- W Bristol City vs Norwich 1-0
- L Norwich vs Bristol City 3-2
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Bristol City's side.