Bournemouth
Model pick
58%
Fair odds 1.71
Nott'm Forest
18%
Fair odds 5.50
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Bournemouth | Draw | Nott'm Forest | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 58% | 23% | 18% |
| Elo model | 56% | 26% | 19% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bournemouth
Bournemouth are rated 69 points above Nott'm Forest (1629 to 1561), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Bournemouth
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Bournemouth's chance of winning and takes the same from Nott'm Forest's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Bournemouth
Expected goals 1.9 to 0.9. Bournemouth score 1.9 a match against an average side (2nd in Premier League); Nott'm Forest concede 1.0 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Bournemouth
Bournemouth WWWWW, gained 52 rating points; Nott'm Forest LDLLL, lost 31 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Bournemouth
Bournemouth won 6, drew 4 and lost 0 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BournemouthNott'm ForestBournemouth
7/10 over 2.5
21 scored
10 conceded
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Nott'm Forest
3/10 over 2.5
7 scored
13 conceded
05/24
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/23
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Bournemouth | Draw | Nott'm Forest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 33%3.00 | 3%29.15 | 1%— |
| Level | 22%4.61 | 14%7.29 | 6%15.43 |
| Nott'm Forest | 4%25.77 | 5%18.76 | 11%8.87 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6Bournemouth wins0Nott'm Forest wins- D Nott'm Forest vs Bournemouth 1-1
- W Bournemouth vs Nott'm Forest 2-0
- W Bournemouth vs Nott'm Forest 5-0
- D Nott'm Forest vs Bournemouth 1-1
- D Bournemouth vs Nott'm Forest 1-1
- W Nott'm Forest vs Bournemouth 2-3
- D Bournemouth vs Nott'm Forest 1-1
- W Nott'm Forest vs Bournemouth 2-3
- W Bournemouth vs Nott'm Forest 1-0
- W Nott'm Forest vs Bournemouth 1-2
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Bournemouth's side.