Altrincham
16%
Fair odds 6.20
Notts County
Model pick
62%
Fair odds 1.62
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Altrincham | Draw | Notts County | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 16% | 22% | 62% |
| Elo model | 17% | 25% | 58% |
Team news
No absences reported
No recent injury or suspension news found for Altrincham in the last three days; Neil Gibson's recent press comments did not mention any absences.
No absences reported
The club's injury list shows Dean Campbell and Emile Acquah, but that page is dated 21 Oct and is not recent, so I have not treated them as absent. No recent Notts County team news was found.
Allowing for this news: Altrincham 17%, draw 23%, Notts County 60% (xG 0.93 – 1.94). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search, which found little recent news, so treat this with care. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: nottscountynews.co.uk, fa-cupfinals.co.uk, altrinchamfc.com, thenonleaguefootballpaper.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Notts County
Notts County are rated 217 points above Altrincham (1287 to 1070), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Altrincham
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Altrincham's chance of winning and takes the same from Notts County's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Notts County
Expected goals 0.9 to 2.0. Altrincham score 0.5 a match against an average side (13th in National League); Notts County concede 1.7 (15th best defence in League One).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Notts County
Altrincham LDWWL, barely moved; Notts County WDWLL, gained 22 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Notts County
Altrincham won 1, drew 0 and lost 3 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AltrinchamNotts CountyAltrincham
8/10 over 2.5
17 scored
16 conceded
09/12
09/16
09/19
09/29
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/31
Notts County
2/10 over 2.5
10 scored
11 conceded
08/29
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-2
- 0-1
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-3
- 1-3
- 0-0
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Altrincham | Draw | Notts County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Altrincham | 10%9.72 | 5%19.92 | 4%27.62 |
| Level | 5%18.25 | 13%7.72 | 21%4.87 |
| Notts County | 1%— | 3%29.76 | 38%2.63 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Altrincham wins3Notts County wins- L Altrincham vs Notts County 0-2
- L Notts County vs Altrincham 3-1
- L Notts County vs Altrincham 3-0
- W Altrincham vs Notts County 1-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Altrincham's side.