Heidenheim
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.33
Nurnberg
33%
Fair odds 3.03
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Heidenheim | Draw | Nurnberg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 29% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Nurnberg
Nurnberg are rated 12 points above Heidenheim (1412 to 1401), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Heidenheim
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Heidenheim's chance of winning and takes the same from Nurnberg's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Heidenheim
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.5. Heidenheim score 1.2 a match against an average side (4th in 2. Bundesliga); Nurnberg concede 1.5 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Nurnberg
Heidenheim LDLDD, lost 22 rating points; Nurnberg WLDDW, gained 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Heidenheim
Heidenheim won 3, drew 0 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HeidenheimNurnbergHeidenheim
6/10 over 2.5
17 scored
18 conceded
08/08
08/15
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/09
10/17
10/24
10/31
Nurnberg
7/10 over 2.5
24 scored
13 conceded
08/09
08/15
08/29
09/05
09/11
09/19
10/10
10/16
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Heidenheim | Draw | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim | 27%3.66 | 6%17.04 | 3%34.60 |
| Level | 13%7.42 | 13%7.85 | 12%8.07 |
| Nurnberg | 2%40.00 | 5%21.37 | 18%5.51 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Heidenheim wins1Nurnberg wins- W Heidenheim vs Nurnberg 5-0
- W Nurnberg vs Heidenheim 0-3
- W Heidenheim vs Nurnberg 3-1
- L Nurnberg vs Heidenheim 4-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Heidenheim's side.