Panathinaikos
Model pick
71%
Fair odds 1.42
OFI Crete
11%
Fair odds 8.97
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Panathinaikos | Draw | OFI Crete | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 71% | 18% | 11% |
| Elo model | 66% | 22% | 12% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Panathinaikos
Panathinaikos are rated 148 points above OFI Crete (1523 to 1376), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Panathinaikos
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Panathinaikos's chance of winning and takes the same from OFI Crete's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Panathinaikos
Expected goals 2.3 to 0.8. Panathinaikos score 1.4 a match against an average side (1st in Greek Super League); OFI Crete concede 1.7 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Panathinaikos WWWWW, gained 34 rating points; OFI Crete WWWLL, gained 21 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Panathinaikos
Panathinaikos won 6, drew 3 and lost 1 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
PanathinaikosOFI CretePanathinaikos
6/10 over 2.5
24 scored
6 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
OFI Crete
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
14 conceded
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 1-1
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Panathinaikos | Draw | OFI Crete |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos | 47%2.14 | 3%30.12 | 1%— |
| Level | 21%4.78 | 11%9.49 | 4%22.47 |
| OFI Crete | 3%30.49 | 4%27.25 | 6%15.90 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6Panathinaikos wins1OFI Crete wins- W Panathinaikos vs OFI Crete 4-1
- W OFI Crete vs Panathinaikos 0-2
- W Panathinaikos vs OFI Crete 3-2
- W OFI Crete vs Panathinaikos 0-1
- D OFI Crete vs Panathinaikos 2-2
- W Panathinaikos vs OFI Crete 4-0
- D Panathinaikos vs OFI Crete 1-1
- W OFI Crete vs Panathinaikos 0-2
- L OFI Crete vs Panathinaikos 3-2
- D Panathinaikos vs OFI Crete 0-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Panathinaikos's side.