Sonderjyske
30%
Fair odds 3.29
Odense
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.22
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sonderjyske | Draw | Odense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Elo model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Odense
Odense are rated 57 points above Sonderjyske (1351 to 1294), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sonderjyske
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sonderjyske's chance of winning and takes the same from Odense's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Odense
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.7. Sonderjyske score 0.8 a match against an average side (11th in Danish Superliga); Odense concede 1.8 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Odense
Sonderjyske LLWLW, barely moved; Odense WDWDD, gained 31 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Sonderjyske won 1, drew 4 and lost 2 of the last 7 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SonderjyskeOdenseSonderjyske
8/10 over 2.5
15 scored
27 conceded
08/17
08/23
08/31
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/12
10/18
10/25
11/02
Odense
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
15 conceded
08/16
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/09
10/18
10/26
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 1-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sonderjyske | Draw | Odense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sonderjyske | 22%4.50 | 8%12.61 | 5%18.62 |
| Level | 8%13.04 | 13%7.82 | 19%5.36 |
| Odense | 1%— | 3%33.56 | 21%4.66 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Sonderjyske wins2Odense wins- L Odense vs Sonderjyske 1-0
- W Sonderjyske vs Odense 1-0
- D Odense vs Sonderjyske 1-1
- D Odense vs Sonderjyske 1-1
- D Sonderjyske vs Odense 2-2
- D Sonderjyske vs Odense 2-2
- L Odense vs Sonderjyske 2-1
7 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sonderjyske's side.