Gamba Osaka
Model pick
54%
Fair odds 1.86
Okayama
22%
Fair odds 4.63
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Gamba Osaka | Draw | Okayama | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 54% | 25% | 22% |
| Elo model | 51% | 27% | 23% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka are rated 36 points above Okayama (1343 to 1307), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Gamba Osaka
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Gamba Osaka's chance of winning and takes the same from Okayama's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Gamba Osaka
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.0. Gamba Osaka score 0.8 a match against an average side (10th in J1 League); Okayama concede 2.1 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka DDWDL, gained 8 rating points; Okayama LLWLL, lost 27 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Gamba OsakaOkayamaGamba Osaka
4/10 over 2.5
8 scored
14 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/09
10/17
10/21
10/24
11/01
Okayama
9/10 over 2.5
13 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/21
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Gamba Osaka | Draw | Okayama |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gamba Osaka | 32%3.16 | 3%31.06 | 1%— |
| Level | 19%5.31 | 14%7.00 | 6%16.67 |
| Okayama | 4%26.60 | 6%15.97 | 15%6.52 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Gamba Osaka wins2Okayama wins- L Gamba Osaka vs Okayama 0-3
- L Okayama vs Gamba Osaka 2-0
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Gamba Osaka's side.