Yokohama F. Marinos
Model pick
68%
Fair odds 1.47Bookmakers 38%
Okayama
12%
Fair odds 8.18Bookmakers 35%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Yokohama F. Marinos: 68% here, 38% with bookmakers; Okayama: 12% here, 35% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Yokohama F. Marinos | Draw | Okayama | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 68% | 20% | 12% |
| Elo model | 59% | 25% | 16% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Best price on offer | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Yokohama F. Marinos
Yokohama F. Marinos are rated 94 points above Okayama (1401 to 1307), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Yokohama F. Marinos
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Yokohama F. Marinos's chance of winning and takes the same from Okayama's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Yokohama F. Marinos
Expected goals 2.2 to 0.8. Yokohama F. Marinos score 1.0 a match against an average side (7th in J1 League); Okayama concede 2.1 (15th best defence).
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Last 5 matches Favours Yokohama F. Marinos
Yokohama F. Marinos WDDDD, barely moved; Okayama LLWLL, lost 27 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
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Bookmakers' view Favours Okayama
Bookmakers rate Okayama higher than the model does: Yokohama F. Marinos 38% against the model's 68%, Okayama 35% against 12%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Yokohama F. MarinosOkayamaYokohama F. Marinos
3/10 over 2.5
15 scored
10 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/21
10/25
11/01
Okayama
9/10 over 2.5
13 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/21
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 4-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Yokohama F. Marinos | Draw | Okayama |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yokohama F. Marinos | 34%2.92 | 1%90.09 | 0%— |
| Level | 27%3.73 | 10%9.64 | 2%51.55 |
| Okayama | 8%13.32 | 7%13.61 | 10%9.53 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Yokohama F. Marinos wins2Okayama wins- L Yokohama F. Marinos vs Okayama 0-1
- L Okayama vs Yokohama F. Marinos 1-0
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Yokohama F. Marinos's side.