Shrewsbury
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.32
Oldham
29%
Fair odds 3.44
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Shrewsbury | Draw | Oldham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Elo model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Oldham
Oldham are rated 32 points above Shrewsbury (1190 to 1158), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Shrewsbury
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Shrewsbury's chance of winning and takes the same from Oldham's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Shrewsbury
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.1. Shrewsbury score 0.6 a match against an average side (18th in League Two); Oldham concede 2.1 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Shrewsbury LDWWL, barely moved; Oldham WLDLW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
ShrewsburyOldhamShrewsbury
5/10 over 2.5
15 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Oldham
4/10 over 2.5
8 scored
16 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Shrewsbury | Draw | Oldham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury | 25%3.97 | 5%21.01 | 2%62.11 |
| Level | 16%6.18 | 17%5.88 | 11%8.74 |
| Oldham | 2%43.48 | 5%20.20 | 17%6.04 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Shrewsbury wins0Oldham wins- W Shrewsbury vs Oldham 1-0
- D Oldham vs Shrewsbury 2-2
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Shrewsbury's side.