Juventus
Model pick
72%
Fair odds 1.38
Omonia Nicosia
10%
Fair odds 9.90
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Juventus | Draw | Omonia Nicosia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| Elo model | 69% | 21% | 10% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Juventus
Juventus are rated 175 points above Omonia Nicosia (1606 to 1432), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Juventus
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Juventus's chance of winning and takes the same from Omonia Nicosia's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Juventus
Expected goals 2.4 to 0.8. Juventus score 1.6 a match against an average side (4th in Serie A); Omonia Nicosia concede 1.4.
-
Last 5 matches Favours Omonia Nicosia
Juventus WWLWD, gained 7 rating points; Omonia Nicosia LLWWL, gained 24 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
JuventusOmonia NicosiaJuventus
5/10 over 2.5
18 scored
10 conceded
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/28
11/01
11/05
Omonia Nicosia
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
13 conceded
11/06
12/11
09/16
10/15
10/22
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Juventus | Draw | Omonia Nicosia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus | 39%2.56 | 2%53.48 | 0%— |
| Level | 28%3.62 | 10%10.12 | 3%32.36 |
| Omonia Nicosia | 6%16.67 | 5%19.53 | 7%14.27 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.