Karlsruhe
Model pick
48%
Fair odds 2.06
Osnabruck
28%
Fair odds 3.58
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Karlsruhe | Draw | Osnabruck | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Elo model | 51% | 27% | 22% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Karlsruhe
Karlsruhe are rated 39 points above Osnabruck (1323 to 1284), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Karlsruhe
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Karlsruhe's chance of winning and takes the same from Osnabruck's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Karlsruhe
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.4. Karlsruhe score 1.0 a match against an average side (10th in 2. Bundesliga); Osnabruck concede 1.9 (16th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Karlsruhe WLWLL, barely moved; Osnabruck LWLDD, gained 8 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
KarlsruheOsnabruckKarlsruhe
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
21 conceded
08/08
08/15
08/29
09/04
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/31
Osnabruck
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
17 conceded
08/08
08/15
08/28
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Karlsruhe | Draw | Osnabruck |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe | 30%3.32 | 5%19.27 | 2%45.87 |
| Level | 16%6.39 | 12%8.00 | 10%9.80 |
| Osnabruck | 3%32.15 | 5%19.92 | 16%6.25 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Karlsruhe wins0Osnabruck wins- W Karlsruhe vs Osnabruck 2-1
- W Osnabruck vs Karlsruhe 2-3
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Karlsruhe's side.