Otelul
22%
Fair odds 4.60Bookmakers 29%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. FC Botosani: 53% here, 44% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| FC Botosani | Draw | Otelul | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 53% | 26% | 22% |
| Elo model | 45% | 27% | 27% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Best price on offer | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
FC Botosani and Otelul are rated almost level (1351 and 1354).
-
Home advantage Favours FC Botosani
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to FC Botosani's chance of winning and takes the same from Otelul's.
-
Attack against defence Favours FC Botosani
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.0. FC Botosani score 0.9 a match against an average side (10th in Romanian Liga 1); Otelul concede 1.9 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
FC Botosani LLLWL, lost 17 rating points; Otelul DLDLL, lost 25 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Otelul
Bookmakers rate Otelul higher than the model does: FC Botosani 44% against the model's 53%, Otelul 29% against 22%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
FC Botosani won 2, drew 4 and lost 3 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
FC BotosaniOtelul
08/17
09/19
10/16
11/01
Otelul
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
17 conceded
08/16
09/06
10/10
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | FC Botosani | Draw | Otelul |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Botosani | 32%3.14 | 3%32.26 | 1%— |
| Level | 18%5.56 | 15%6.48 | 6%17.54 |
| Otelul | 3%30.49 | 6%16.13 | 16%6.30 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Otelul wins- D FC Botosani vs Otelul 1-1
- D FC Botosani vs Otelul 0-0
- W Otelul vs FC Botosani 0-1
- L FC Botosani vs Otelul 0-1
- D Otelul vs FC Botosani 0-0
- L FC Botosani vs Otelul 2-3
- L Otelul vs FC Botosani 2-0
- W Otelul vs FC Botosani 0-2
- D FC Botosani vs Otelul 0-0
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from FC Botosani's side.