Anderlecht
Model pick
59%
Fair odds 1.69
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
18%
Fair odds 5.50
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Anderlecht | Draw | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Elo model | 59% | 25% | 16% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Anderlecht
Anderlecht are rated 95 points above Oud-Heverlee Leuven (1537 to 1442), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Anderlecht
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Anderlecht's chance of winning and takes the same from Oud-Heverlee Leuven's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Anderlecht
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.0. Anderlecht score 1.4 a match against an average side (4th in Belgian Pro League); Oud-Heverlee Leuven concede 1.4 (10th best defence).
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Last 5 matches Favours Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Anderlecht WWLWL, gained 11 rating points; Oud-Heverlee Leuven WDDWD, gained 27 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
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Past meetings Favours Anderlecht
Anderlecht won 3, drew 7 and lost 0 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AnderlechtOud-Heverlee LeuvenAnderlecht
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
9 conceded
09/06
09/11
09/16
09/19
10/10
10/15
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
6/10 over 2.5
10 scored
17 conceded
08/09
08/15
08/29
09/03
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Anderlecht | Draw | Oud-Heverlee Leuven |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht | 34%2.97 | 3%29.94 | 1%— |
| Level | 22%4.61 | 13%7.70 | 6%16.10 |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 4%23.64 | 6%18.08 | 12%8.66 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Anderlecht wins0Oud-Heverlee Leuven wins- W Anderlecht vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven 5-1
- D Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Anderlecht 1-1
- D Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Anderlecht 0-0
- D Anderlecht vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1-1
- D Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Anderlecht 1-1
- W Anderlecht vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven 5-1
- W Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Anderlecht 0-2
- D Anderlecht vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2-2
- D Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Anderlecht 0-0
- D Anderlecht vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2-2
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Anderlecht's side.