Cadiz
28%
Fair odds 3.52Bookmakers 34%
Oviedo
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.24Bookmakers 37%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Cadiz | Draw | Oviedo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 28% | 27% | 45% |
| Elo model | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 34% | 29% | 37% |
| Best price on offer | 2.75 | 3.25 | 2.55 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Oviedo
Oviedo are rated 106 points above Cadiz (1404 to 1297), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Cadiz
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Cadiz's chance of winning and takes the same from Oviedo's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Oviedo
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.5. Cadiz score 0.8 a match against an average side (23rd in La Liga 2); Oviedo concede 1.4 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Cadiz LWLLW, gained 9 rating points; Oviedo LDWWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Cadiz
Bookmakers rate Cadiz higher than the model does: Cadiz 34% against the model's 28%, Oviedo 37% against 45%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CadizOviedoCadiz
5/10 over 2.5
13 scored
14 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/11
10/18
10/25
11/02
Oviedo
7/10 over 2.5
17 scored
14 conceded
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/02
10/12
10/18
10/24
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 46%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Cadiz | Draw | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cadiz | 16%6.31 | 5%21.19 | 2%44.44 |
| Level | 11%8.88 | 16%6.25 | 16%6.41 |
| Oviedo | 2%55.25 | 5%19.53 | 27%3.65 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Cadiz wins1Oviedo wins- L Oviedo vs Cadiz 2-1
- W Cadiz vs Oviedo 2-0
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Cadiz's side.