Cordoba
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.46
Oviedo
34%
Fair odds 2.91
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Cordoba | Draw | Oviedo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Elo model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Oviedo
Oviedo are rated 57 points above Cordoba (1404 to 1347), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Cordoba
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Cordoba's chance of winning and takes the same from Oviedo's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.5. Cordoba score 1.1 a match against an average side (4th in La Liga 2); Oviedo concede 1.4 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Cordoba
Cordoba DWWLW, gained 22 rating points; Oviedo LDWWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
CordobaOviedoCordoba
7/10 over 2.5
15 scored
18 conceded
08/30
09/07
09/12
09/18
09/27
10/05
10/10
10/16
10/24
Oviedo
7/10 over 2.5
17 scored
14 conceded
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/02
10/12
10/18
10/24
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Cordoba | Draw | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cordoba | 24%4.19 | 5%19.42 | 2%42.19 |
| Level | 14%6.93 | 14%7.31 | 12%8.08 |
| Oviedo | 3%35.84 | 5%18.90 | 20%4.99 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Cordoba wins0Oviedo wins- D Cordoba vs Oviedo 0-0
- W Oviedo vs Cordoba 2-3
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Cordoba's side.