Olympiakos
Model pick
60%
Fair odds 1.67Bookmakers 59%
PAOK
16%
Fair odds 6.28Bookmakers 18%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Olympiakos | Draw | PAOK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 60% | 24% | 16% |
| Elo model | 56% | 25% | 18% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Best price on offer | 1.58 | 4.10 | 5.50 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Olympiakos
Olympiakos are rated 73 points above PAOK (1554 to 1481), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Olympiakos
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Olympiakos's chance of winning and takes the same from PAOK's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Olympiakos
Expected goals 1.8 to 0.8. Olympiakos score 1.2 a match against an average side (3rd in Greek Super League); PAOK concede 1.5 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Olympiakos
Olympiakos DWWWW, gained 22 rating points; PAOK WLWLW, lost 15 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours PAOK
Olympiakos will have had 4 days' rest, PAOK 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Olympiakos 59%, PAOK 18%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Olympiakos
Olympiakos won 9, drew 5 and lost 6 of the last 20 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
OlympiakosPAOKOlympiakos
3/10 over 2.5
16 scored
4 conceded
09/12
09/16
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/04
PAOK
9/10 over 2.5
20 scored
14 conceded
05/17
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/12
10/18
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 54%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Olympiakos | Draw | PAOK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olympiakos | 35%2.88 | 3%34.01 | 1%— |
| Level | 22%4.50 | 15%6.71 | 5%18.69 |
| PAOK | 4%28.25 | 5%19.01 | 10%9.56 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
9Olympiakos wins6PAOK wins- D Olympiakos vs PAOK 1-1
- L PAOK vs Olympiakos 3-1
- D Olympiakos vs PAOK 0-0
- L PAOK vs Olympiakos 2-1
- W Olympiakos vs PAOK 4-2
- L PAOK vs Olympiakos 2-1
- W Olympiakos vs PAOK 2-1
- W PAOK vs Olympiakos 2-3
- L PAOK vs Olympiakos 2-0
- W Olympiakos vs PAOK 2-1
20 meetings in the data. Results shown from Olympiakos's side.