Cambuur
27%
Fair odds 3.71Bookmakers 15%
PSV Eindhoven
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.97Bookmakers 68%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Cambuur: 27% here, 15% with bookmakers; PSV Eindhoven: 51% here, 68% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Cambuur | Draw | PSV Eindhoven | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 27% | 22% | 51% |
| Elo model | 14% | 24% | 62% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 15% | 17% | 68% |
| Best price on offer | 7.00 | 5.75 | 1.40 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven are rated 244 points above Cambuur (1667 to 1424), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Cambuur
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Cambuur's chance of winning and takes the same from PSV Eindhoven's.
-
Attack against defence Favours PSV Eindhoven
Expected goals 1.5 to 2.1. Cambuur score 1.3 a match against an average side (9th in Eredivisie); PSV Eindhoven concede 1.2 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Cambuur
Cambuur WWDWD, gained 53 rating points; PSV Eindhoven LWDWL, lost 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Cambuur
PSV Eindhoven will have had 4 days' rest, Cambuur 8. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours PSV Eindhoven
Bookmakers rate PSV Eindhoven higher than the model does: Cambuur 15% against the model's 27%, PSV Eindhoven 68% against 51%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours PSV Eindhoven
Cambuur won 1, drew 0 and lost 3 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CambuurPSV EindhovenCambuur
8/10 over 2.5
23 scored
18 conceded
08/15
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/31
PSV Eindhoven
5/10 over 2.5
20 scored
11 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
10/09
10/13
10/17
10/20
10/25
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 74%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 2-1
- 1-3
- 0-2
- 0-1
- 2-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Cambuur | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cambuur | 14%7.38 | 4%27.62 | 2%50.25 |
| Level | 10%9.52 | 11%9.16 | 12%8.45 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 3%30.40 | 7%14.58 | 37%2.67 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Cambuur wins3PSV Eindhoven wins- L PSV Eindhoven vs Cambuur 5-2
- W Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven 3-0
- L Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven 1-2
- L PSV Eindhoven vs Cambuur 4-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Cambuur's side.