Nijmegen
33%
Fair odds 3.06
PSV Eindhoven
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.23
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Nijmegen | Draw | PSV Eindhoven | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 33% | 22% | 45% |
| Elo model | 25% | 27% | 48% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven are rated 146 points above Nijmegen (1667 to 1521), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Nijmegen
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Nijmegen's chance of winning and takes the same from PSV Eindhoven's.
-
Attack against defence Favours PSV Eindhoven
Expected goals 1.7 to 2.0. Nijmegen score 1.5 a match against an average side (6th in Eredivisie); PSV Eindhoven concede 1.2 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Nijmegen
Nijmegen WLDWD, gained 8 rating points; PSV Eindhoven LWDWL, lost 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours PSV Eindhoven
Nijmegen won 2, drew 1 and lost 7 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
NijmegenPSV EindhovenNijmegen
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
19 conceded
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
PSV Eindhoven
5/10 over 2.5
20 scored
11 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
10/09
10/13
10/17
10/20
10/25
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 1-3
- 0-2
- 0-1
- 2-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Nijmegen | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nijmegen | 18%5.50 | 5%21.93 | 3%37.88 |
| Level | 12%8.62 | 11%9.06 | 13%7.99 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 3%30.49 | 6%16.26 | 30%3.33 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Nijmegen wins7PSV Eindhoven wins- W PSV Eindhoven vs Nijmegen 2-3
- L Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven 3-5
- D Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven 3-3
- L PSV Eindhoven vs Nijmegen 2-0
- W Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven 3-1
- L PSV Eindhoven vs Nijmegen 4-0
- L Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven 2-4
- L PSV Eindhoven vs Nijmegen 3-0
- L PSV Eindhoven vs Nijmegen 3-2
- L Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven 1-2
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Nijmegen's side.