Real Madrid
Model pick
65%
Fair odds 1.54Bookmakers 79%
PSV Eindhoven
17%
Fair odds 5.72Bookmakers 9%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Real Madrid: 65% here, 79% with bookmakers; PSV Eindhoven: 17% here, 9% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Real Madrid | Draw | PSV Eindhoven | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 65% | 18% | 17% |
| Elo model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 79% | 13% | 9% |
| Best price on offer | 1.25 | 8.10 | 13.00 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Real Madrid
Real Madrid are rated 49 points above PSV Eindhoven (1716 to 1667), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Real Madrid
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Real Madrid's chance of winning and takes the same from PSV Eindhoven's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Real Madrid
Expected goals 2.7 to 1.4. Real Madrid score 2.2 a match against an average side (2nd in La Liga); PSV Eindhoven concede 1.2 (4th best defence in Eredivisie).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Real Madrid
Real Madrid WWWWW, gained 30 rating points; PSV Eindhoven LWDWL, lost 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Real Madrid
Bookmakers rate Real Madrid higher than the model does: Real Madrid 79% against the model's 65%, PSV Eindhoven 9% against 17%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Real MadridPSV EindhovenReal Madrid
9/10 over 2.5
29 scored
13 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/18
10/21
10/25
11/04
PSV Eindhoven
5/10 over 2.5
20 scored
11 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
10/09
10/13
10/17
10/20
10/25
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 3-1
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 2-2
- 3-0
- 3-2
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Real Madrid | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 33%3.04 | 2%40.32 | 1%— |
| Level | 24%4.24 | 8%12.59 | 5%21.74 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 9%11.43 | 7%15.08 | 12%8.14 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.