Atlas
35%
Fair odds 2.88Bookmakers 42%
Pachuca
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.56Bookmakers 32%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Atlas | Draw | Pachuca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Elo model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Best price on offer | 2.26 | 3.70 | 3.20 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Pachuca
Pachuca are rated 54 points above Atlas (1416 to 1363), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Atlas
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Atlas's chance of winning and takes the same from Pachuca's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.5. Atlas score 0.9 a match against an average side (10th in Liga MX); Pachuca concede 1.5 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Atlas WWLWD, gained 13 rating points; Pachuca WWLLD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Atlas
Bookmakers rate Atlas higher than the model does: Atlas 42% against the model's 35%, Pachuca 32% against 39%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Pachuca
Atlas won 4, drew 1 and lost 7 of the last 12 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AtlasPachucaAtlas
5/10 over 2.5
18 scored
21 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/20
09/26
10/11
10/17
10/22
10/25
10/31
Pachuca
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
12 conceded
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/21
10/12
10/19
10/22
10/26
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Atlas | Draw | Pachuca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlas | 25%4.01 | 7%14.10 | 4%28.49 |
| Level | 9%10.94 | 15%6.82 | 15%6.53 |
| Pachuca | 1%89.29 | 4%28.25 | 21%4.83 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Atlas wins7Pachuca wins- L Pachuca vs Atlas 3-1
- L Atlas vs Pachuca 0-3
- D Pachuca vs Atlas 0-0
- W Atlas vs Pachuca 2-0
- L Pachuca vs Atlas 4-3
- L Atlas vs Pachuca 0-2
- W Atlas vs Pachuca 4-1
- L Pachuca vs Atlas 3-1
- L Pachuca vs Atlas 2-1
- W Atlas vs Pachuca 2-0
12 meetings in the data. Results shown from Atlas's side.