Leverkusen
Model pick
70%
Fair odds 1.43
Paderborn
12%
Fair odds 8.24
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Leverkusen | Draw | Paderborn | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 70% | 18% | 12% |
| Elo model | 68% | 22% | 10% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Leverkusen
Leverkusen are rated 165 points above Paderborn (1590 to 1425), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Leverkusen
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Leverkusen's chance of winning and takes the same from Paderborn's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Leverkusen
Expected goals 2.4 to 0.9. Leverkusen score 1.6 a match against an average side (5th in Bundesliga); Paderborn concede 1.6 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Paderborn
Leverkusen LLLWW, lost 33 rating points; Paderborn DWDLW, gained 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
LeverkusenPaderbornLeverkusen
6/10 over 2.5
20 scored
14 conceded
09/12
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Paderborn
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
11 conceded
05/08
05/17
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Leverkusen | Draw | Paderborn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leverkusen | 48%2.10 | 3%29.85 | 1%— |
| Level | 19%5.19 | 10%10.18 | 4%23.20 |
| Paderborn | 4%28.09 | 4%24.81 | 7%13.61 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.