Arezzo
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.14
Padova
27%
Fair odds 3.67
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Arezzo | Draw | Padova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Elo model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Padova
Padova are rated 18 points above Arezzo (1333 to 1315), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Arezzo
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Arezzo's chance of winning and takes the same from Padova's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Arezzo
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.2. Arezzo score 0.8 a match against an average side (19th in Serie B); Padova concede 1.9 (20th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Arezzo DLLWD, lost 15 rating points; Padova DWWLL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
ArezzoPadovaArezzo
7/10 over 2.5
9 scored
19 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/11
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/28
11/01
Padova
3/10 over 2.5
10 scored
11 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Arezzo | Draw | Padova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arezzo | 28%3.52 | 5%19.65 | 2%54.05 |
| Level | 16%6.14 | 15%6.57 | 11%9.18 |
| Padova | 2%40.32 | 5%21.10 | 15%6.65 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.