Ascoli
36%
Fair odds 2.81Bookmakers 31%
Palermo
Model pick
37%
Fair odds 2.69Bookmakers 42%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Ascoli | Draw | Palermo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Elo model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 31% | 27% | 42% |
| Best price on offer | 3.20 | 3.55 | 2.25 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Palermo
Palermo are rated 94 points above Ascoli (1476 to 1382), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Ascoli
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Ascoli's chance of winning and takes the same from Palermo's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.4. Ascoli score 0.9 a match against an average side (9th in Serie B); Palermo concede 1.4 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Ascoli DWWDD, gained 28 rating points; Palermo WDWWW, gained 26 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Palermo
Bookmakers rate Palermo higher than the model does: Ascoli 31% against the model's 36%, Palermo 42% against 37%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Ascoli won 1, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AscoliPalermoAscoli
3/10 over 2.5
16 scored
6 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/27
11/01
Palermo
7/10 over 2.5
24 scored
12 conceded
08/23
08/30
09/07
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/25
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 57%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Ascoli | Draw | Palermo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ascoli | 21%4.83 | 5%19.27 | 2%43.67 |
| Level | 13%7.51 | 16%6.23 | 14%7.01 |
| Palermo | 2%49.02 | 5%20.37 | 21%4.71 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Ascoli wins2Palermo wins- D Palermo vs Ascoli 2-2
- L Ascoli vs Palermo 0-1
- L Ascoli vs Palermo 1-2
- W Palermo vs Ascoli 2-3
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Ascoli's side.