Catanzaro
27%
Fair odds 3.75
Palermo
Model pick
50%
Fair odds 2.02
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Catanzaro | Draw | Palermo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 27% | 24% | 50% |
| Elo model | 25% | 27% | 47% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Palermo
Palermo are rated 143 points above Catanzaro (1476 to 1333), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Catanzaro
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Catanzaro's chance of winning and takes the same from Palermo's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Palermo
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.8. Catanzaro score 0.9 a match against an average side (11th in Serie B); Palermo concede 1.4 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Palermo
Catanzaro DDLDL, lost 33 rating points; Palermo WDWWW, gained 26 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Catanzaro won 3, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CatanzaroPalermoCatanzaro
6/10 over 2.5
11 scored
22 conceded
08/21
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/16
10/24
10/27
10/31
Palermo
7/10 over 2.5
24 scored
12 conceded
08/23
08/30
09/07
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/25
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 1-3
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Catanzaro | Draw | Palermo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Catanzaro | 17%5.90 | 6%15.62 | 5%21.32 |
| Level | 9%11.43 | 13%7.82 | 20%5.11 |
| Palermo | 1%73.53 | 4%26.74 | 26%3.88 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Catanzaro wins2Palermo wins- L Palermo vs Catanzaro 3-2
- W Catanzaro vs Palermo 1-0
- L Catanzaro vs Palermo 1-3
- W Palermo vs Catanzaro 1-2
- D Catanzaro vs Palermo 1-1
- W Palermo vs Catanzaro 1-2
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Catanzaro's side.