Iraklis
15%
Fair odds 6.62Bookmakers 12%
Panathinaikos
Model pick
64%
Fair odds 1.57Bookmakers 68%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Iraklis | Draw | Panathinaikos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 15% | 21% | 64% |
| Elo model | 22% | 27% | 51% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 12% | 20% | 68% |
| Best price on offer | 9.25 | 5.00 | 1.37 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Panathinaikos
Panathinaikos are rated 170 points above Iraklis (1523 to 1354), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Iraklis
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Iraklis's chance of winning and takes the same from Panathinaikos's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Panathinaikos
Expected goals 0.9 to 2.0. Iraklis score 0.8 a match against an average side (11th in Greek Super League); Panathinaikos concede 1.1 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Panathinaikos
Iraklis DLLWD, barely moved; Panathinaikos WWWWW, gained 34 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Iraklis
Panathinaikos will have had 3 days' rest, Iraklis 6. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Panathinaikos
Bookmakers rate Panathinaikos higher than the model does: Iraklis 12% against the model's 15%, Panathinaikos 68% against 64%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
IraklisPanathinaikosIraklis
3/9 over 2.5
10 scored
12 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/07
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/24
11/02
Panathinaikos
6/10 over 2.5
24 scored
6 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 56%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-2
- 0-1
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-3
- 1-3
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Iraklis | Draw | Panathinaikos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iraklis | 10%10.04 | 6%17.61 | 5%19.31 |
| Level | 5%20.16 | 12%8.25 | 25%4.02 |
| Panathinaikos | 1%— | 3%37.88 | 34%2.94 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.