Nordsjaelland
24%
Fair odds 4.21
Panathinaikos
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.95
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Nordsjaelland | Draw | Panathinaikos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 24% | 25% | 51% |
| Elo model | 30% | 28% | 43% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Panathinaikos
Panathinaikos are rated 111 points above Nordsjaelland (1523 to 1412), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Nordsjaelland
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Nordsjaelland's chance of winning and takes the same from Panathinaikos's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Panathinaikos
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.7. Nordsjaelland score 1.0 a match against an average side (5th in Danish Superliga); Panathinaikos concede 1.1 (2nd best defence in Greek Super League).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Panathinaikos
Nordsjaelland LLDDD, lost 18 rating points; Panathinaikos WWWWW, gained 34 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
NordsjaellandPanathinaikosNordsjaelland
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
18 conceded
09/07
09/13
09/20
10/09
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Panathinaikos
6/10 over 2.5
24 scored
6 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Nordsjaelland | Draw | Panathinaikos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nordsjaelland | 20%5.06 | 10%10.07 | 8%12.15 |
| Level | 4%23.98 | 13%7.97 | 25%4.07 |
| Panathinaikos | 0%— | 1%69.44 | 19%5.24 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.