Aris
Model pick
61%
Fair odds 1.65Bookmakers 67%
Panetolikos
16%
Fair odds 6.20Bookmakers 12%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Aris | Draw | Panetolikos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| Elo model | 59% | 25% | 16% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 67% | 20% | 12% |
| Best price on offer | 1.39 | 4.75 | 8.80 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Aris
Aris are rated 94 points above Panetolikos (1389 to 1295), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Aris
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Aris's chance of winning and takes the same from Panetolikos's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Aris
Expected goals 1.9 to 0.8. Aris score 0.9 a match against an average side (7th in Greek Super League); Panetolikos concede 2.0 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Aris
Aris LWWWD, barely moved; Panetolikos LLLLL, lost 35 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Aris
Bookmakers rate Aris higher than the model does: Aris 67% against the model's 61%, Panetolikos 12% against 16%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Aris
Aris won 7, drew 0 and lost 3 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ArisPanetolikosAris
8/10 over 2.5
16 scored
17 conceded
05/17
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/25
11/01
Panetolikos
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
19 conceded
05/21
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 54%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Aris | Draw | Panetolikos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aris | 40%2.51 | 4%23.04 | 1%93.46 |
| Level | 19%5.32 | 14%7.03 | 7%14.56 |
| Panetolikos | 2%42.19 | 4%26.18 | 9%11.61 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
7Aris wins3Panetolikos wins- W Panetolikos vs Aris 0-1
- L Aris vs Panetolikos 0-2
- W Aris vs Panetolikos 2-1
- L Panetolikos vs Aris 2-1
- W Panetolikos vs Aris 0-4
- W Aris vs Panetolikos 3-0
- W Aris vs Panetolikos 1-0
- L Panetolikos vs Aris 3-1
- W Panetolikos vs Aris 0-2
- W Aris vs Panetolikos 5-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Aris's side.