Auxerre
28%
Fair odds 3.56Bookmakers 22%
Paris FC
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.16Bookmakers 54%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Auxerre | Draw | Paris FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 22% | 24% | 54% |
| Best price on offer | 4.33 | 4.00 | 1.80 |
Team news
- Bryan Okoh Out
- Assane Dioussé Out
- Lamfia Dioubaté Out
- Sékou Fofana Doubtful
- Axel Tuanzebe Doubtful
Yvan Zaddy (knee surgery) is also reported out, but his position was not confirmed in sources so he is not listed; Rémy Labeau Lascary is reported back in the squad.
- Nhoa Sangui Out
- Luca Koleosho Doubtful
- Jonathan Ikoné Doubtful
- Adama Camara Doubtful
- Lassine Sinayoko Doubtful
- Rudy Matondo Doubtful
Samir Chergui and Pablo Pagis appear in predicted lineups; Hamari Traoré is one yellow card from suspension.
Allowing for this news: Auxerre 28%, draw 26%, Paris FC 45% (xG 1.19 – 1.56). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: rotowire.com, sportsmole.co.uk, topmercato.com, butfootballclub.fr
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Paris FC
Paris FC are rated 68 points above Auxerre (1531 to 1463), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Auxerre
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Auxerre's chance of winning and takes the same from Paris FC's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Paris FC
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.6. Auxerre score 1.2 a match against an average side (13th in Ligue 1); Paris FC concede 1.1 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Paris FC
Auxerre LDWLW, barely moved; Paris FC WLWLW, gained 13 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Paris FC
Bookmakers rate Paris FC higher than the model does: Auxerre 22% against the model's 28%, Paris FC 54% against 46%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Auxerre won 2, drew 3 and lost 1 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AuxerreParis FCAuxerre
7/10 over 2.5
15 scored
23 conceded
05/17
08/22
08/29
09/04
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/25
11/01
Paris FC
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
11 conceded
05/17
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 56%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Auxerre | Draw | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | 18%5.56 | 6%16.03 | 4%26.74 |
| Level | 9%10.75 | 15%6.85 | 18%5.46 |
| Paris FC | 1%78.74 | 4%25.84 | 25%4.05 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Auxerre wins1Paris FC wins- D Auxerre vs Paris FC 0-0
- D Paris FC vs Auxerre 1-1
- W Auxerre vs Paris FC 2-0
- W Paris FC vs Auxerre 0-2
- L Auxerre vs Paris FC 1-2
- D Paris FC vs Auxerre 1-1
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Auxerre's side.