Brest
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.65
Paris FC
36%
Fair odds 2.80
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Brest | Draw | Paris FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 38% | 27% | 36% |
| Elo model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Paris FC
Paris FC are rated 36 points above Brest (1531 to 1495), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Brest
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Brest's chance of winning and takes the same from Paris FC's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.4. Brest score 1.4 a match against an average side (8th in Ligue 1); Paris FC concede 1.1 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Brest WLDWL, gained 14 rating points; Paris FC WLWLW, gained 13 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
BrestParis FCBrest
6/10 over 2.5
17 scored
13 conceded
05/17
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/23
11/02
Paris FC
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
11 conceded
05/17
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Brest | Draw | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brest | 24%4.15 | 6%16.89 | 3%37.17 |
| Level | 12%8.08 | 15%6.59 | 14%7.15 |
| Paris FC | 2%55.25 | 4%22.68 | 20%5.12 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Brest wins2Paris FC wins- L Paris FC vs Brest 4-0
- L Brest vs Paris FC 1-2
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Brest's side.