Nice
9%
Fair odds 11.68
Paris SG
Model pick
78%
Fair odds 1.29
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Nice | Draw | Paris SG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 9% | 14% | 78% |
| Elo model | 11% | 22% | 67% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Paris SG
Paris SG are rated 281 points above Nice (1760 to 1479), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Nice
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Nice's chance of winning and takes the same from Paris SG's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Paris SG
Expected goals 0.9 to 2.9. Nice score 1.2 a match against an average side (12th in Ligue 1); Paris SG concede 0.8 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Nice WWLWW, gained 38 rating points; Paris SG WWWWW, gained 37 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Paris SG
Nice won 3, drew 2 and lost 5 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
NiceParis SGNice
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
12 conceded
05/17
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/23
10/30
Paris SG
8/10 over 2.5
36 scored
9 conceded
09/09
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/26
10/30
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-2
- 0-3
- 1-2
- 1-3
- 0-4
- 1-4
- 1-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 4 |
| 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Nice | Draw | Paris SG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nice | 7%15.31 | 5%18.21 | 10%10.20 |
| Level | 2%49.50 | 6%15.70 | 29%3.41 |
| Paris SG | 0%— | 1%80.00 | 39%2.56 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Nice wins5Paris SG wins- L Nice vs Paris SG 0-4
- L Paris SG vs Nice 1-0
- W Paris SG vs Nice 1-3
- D Nice vs Paris SG 1-1
- L Nice vs Paris SG 1-2
- W Paris SG vs Nice 2-3
- L Nice vs Paris SG 0-2
- L Paris SG vs Nice 2-1
- W Nice vs Paris SG 1-0
- D Paris SG vs Nice 0-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Nice's side.