Queens Park
17%
Fair odds 5.96Bookmakers 13%
Partick
Model pick
58%
Fair odds 1.72Bookmakers 67%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Partick: 58% here, 67% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Queens Park | Draw | Partick | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 17% | 25% | 58% |
| Elo model | 21% | 26% | 52% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 13% | 20% | 67% |
| Best price on offer | 7.50 | 4.80 | 1.38 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Partick
Partick are rated 177 points above Queens Park (1420 to 1243), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Queens Park
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Queens Park's chance of winning and takes the same from Partick's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Partick
Expected goals 0.8 to 1.7. Queens Park score 0.6 a match against an average side (9th in Scottish Championship); Partick concede 1.2 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Partick
Queens Park LLLWL, lost 18 rating points; Partick LWDWW, gained 8 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Partick
Bookmakers rate Partick higher than the model does: Queens Park 13% against the model's 17%, Partick 67% against 58%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Partick
Queens Park won 3, drew 5 and lost 9 of the last 17 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Queens ParkPartickQueens Park
4/10 over 2.5
7 scored
16 conceded
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/18
09/25
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
Partick
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
6 conceded
08/29
09/05
09/15
09/19
10/03
10/10
10/16
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 58%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 0-3
- 1-0
- 1-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Queens Park | Draw | Partick |
|---|---|---|---|
| Queens Park | 10%9.91 | 4%22.57 | 3%39.84 |
| Level | 6%15.70 | 16%6.34 | 19%5.18 |
| Partick | 1%— | 4%26.67 | 37%2.70 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Queens Park wins9Partick wins- D Partick vs Queens Park 0-0
- D Partick vs Queens Park 1-1
- D Queens Park vs Partick 2-2
- L Partick vs Queens Park 5-0
- L Queens Park vs Partick 0-1
- L Queens Park vs Partick 0-2
- L Partick vs Queens Park 2-1
- L Queens Park vs Partick 0-1
- L Partick vs Queens Park 3-0
- D Queens Park vs Partick 2-2
17 meetings in the data. Results shown from Queens Park's side.