Raith Rvs
34%
Fair odds 2.94
Partick
Model pick
36%
Fair odds 2.76
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Raith Rvs | Draw | Partick | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 34% | 30% | 36% |
| Elo model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Partick
Partick are rated 47 points above Raith Rvs (1420 to 1373), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Raith Rvs
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Raith Rvs's chance of winning and takes the same from Partick's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.2. Raith Rvs score 0.9 a match against an average side (4th in Scottish Championship); Partick concede 1.2 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Raith Rvs WLDWW, gained 12 rating points; Partick LWDWW, gained 8 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Raith Rvs
Raith Rvs won 8, drew 8 and lost 5 of the last 21 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Raith RvsPartickRaith Rvs
3/10 over 2.5
15 scored
7 conceded
08/28
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/25
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/31
Partick
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
6 conceded
08/29
09/05
09/15
09/19
10/03
10/10
10/16
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Raith Rvs | Draw | Partick |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raith Rvs | 20%5.10 | 4%22.42 | 1%68.03 |
| Level | 13%7.59 | 19%5.25 | 13%7.83 |
| Partick | 2%57.47 | 5%19.42 | 23%4.43 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
8Raith Rvs wins5Partick wins- D Partick vs Raith Rvs 0-0
- L Raith Rvs vs Partick 0-2
- D Partick vs Raith Rvs 0-0
- W Raith Rvs vs Partick 2-0
- L Partick vs Raith Rvs 3-2
- D Partick vs Raith Rvs 0-0
- W Raith Rvs vs Partick 3-0
- D Partick vs Raith Rvs 1-1
- W Raith Rvs vs Partick 1-0
- D Raith Rvs vs Partick 0-0
21 meetings in the data. Results shown from Raith Rvs's side.