Red Star
Model pick
50%
Fair odds 2.00
Pau FC
25%
Fair odds 3.98
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Red Star | Draw | Pau FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Red Star
Red Star are rated 33 points above Pau FC (1388 to 1355), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Red Star
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Red Star's chance of winning and takes the same from Pau FC's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Red Star
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.2. Red Star score 1.0 a match against an average side (6th in Ligue 2); Pau FC concede 1.6 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Pau FC
Red Star WLLDL, lost 28 rating points; Pau FC WWWWW, gained 45 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Pau FC
Red Star won 1, drew 0 and lost 3 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Red StarPau FCRed Star
8/10 over 2.5
17 scored
17 conceded
09/04
09/14
09/19
10/10
10/15
10/17
10/22
10/26
11/02
11/05
Pau FC
5/10 over 2.5
16 scored
10 conceded
08/14
08/21
08/28
09/04
09/11
09/18
10/09
10/16
10/23
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Red Star | Draw | Pau FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Star | 30%3.29 | 5%21.23 | 2%62.89 |
| Level | 17%5.86 | 14%7.03 | 9%10.67 |
| Pau FC | 3%34.13 | 5%19.80 | 15%6.84 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Red Star wins3Pau FC wins- L Red Star vs Pau FC 0-3
- W Pau FC vs Red Star 0-3
- L Red Star vs Pau FC 1-3
- L Pau FC vs Red Star 4-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Red Star's side.