Plymouth
Model pick
61%
Fair odds 1.63
Peterboro
18%
Fair odds 5.63
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Plymouth | Draw | Peterboro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| Elo model | 64% | 23% | 13% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Plymouth
Plymouth are rated 128 points above Peterboro (1400 to 1271), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Plymouth
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Plymouth's chance of winning and takes the same from Peterboro's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Plymouth
Expected goals 2.2 to 1.1. Plymouth score 1.0 a match against an average side (6th in League One); Peterboro concede 2.1 (22nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Peterboro
Plymouth DWLLW, lost 21 rating points; Peterboro LDLDW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Plymouth won 2, drew 0 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
PlymouthPeterboroPlymouth
6/10 over 2.5
17 scored
13 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Peterboro
4/10 over 2.5
9 scored
16 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Plymouth | Draw | Peterboro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth | 39%2.57 | 4%23.47 | 1%72.99 |
| Level | 19%5.17 | 11%8.89 | 7%14.62 |
| Peterboro | 4%27.40 | 4%22.32 | 10%10.10 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Plymouth wins2Peterboro wins- W Peterboro vs Plymouth 0-1
- L Plymouth vs Peterboro 0-1
- L Peterboro vs Plymouth 5-2
- W Plymouth vs Peterboro 2-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Plymouth's side.