Peterhead
5%
Fair odds 19.80Bookmakers 8%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Ross County | Draw | Peterhead | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 83% | 12% | 5% |
| Elo model | 80% | 16% | 4% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| Best price on offer | 1.19 | 7.00 | 13.00 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Ross County
Ross County are rated 280 points above Peterhead (1384 to 1104), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Ross County
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 5 points to Ross County's chance of winning and takes the same from Peterhead's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Ross County
Expected goals 2.9 to 0.6. Ross County score 1.2 a match against an average side (1st in Scottish League One); Peterhead concede 2.5 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Ross County
Ross County WDWWW, gained 32 rating points; Peterhead WLWLL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Peterhead
Bookmakers rate Peterhead higher than the model does: Ross County 78% against the model's 83%, Peterhead 8% against 5%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Ross CountyPeterhead
09/05
09/15
09/19
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/27
Peterhead
7/10 over 2.5
8 scored
19 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/05
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 69%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 4-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 3-1
- 1-1
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | ||
| 4 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Ross County | Draw | Peterhead |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ross County | 56%1.77 | 2%55.56 | 0%— |
| Level | 23%4.26 | 7%14.79 | 2%50.25 |
| Peterhead | 4%26.60 | 3%38.17 | 3%33.67 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Peterhead wins- W Peterhead vs Ross County 0-1
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Ross County's side.