Share of the pitch
Who wins
| UTA Arad | Draw | Petrolul | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Elo model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 52% | 25% | 22% |
| Best price on offer | 1.79 | 3.80 | 4.25 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours UTA Arad
UTA Arad are rated 14 points above Petrolul (1385 to 1371), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours UTA Arad
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to UTA Arad's chance of winning and takes the same from Petrolul's.
-
Attack against defence Favours UTA Arad
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.0. UTA Arad score 0.9 a match against an average side (8th in Romanian Liga 1); Petrolul concede 1.5 (7th best defence).
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Last 5 matches Neutral
UTA Arad LWWLW, gained 6 rating points; Petrolul DWDLW, gained 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours UTA Arad
Bookmakers rate UTA Arad higher than the model does: UTA Arad 52% against the model's 47%, Petrolul 22% against 25%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours UTA Arad
UTA Arad won 7, drew 3 and lost 2 of the last 12 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
UTA AradPetrolul
08/30
10/18
11/01
08/21
09/14
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | UTA Arad | Draw | Petrolul |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTA Arad | 31%3.21 | 4%26.88 | 1%— |
| Level | 14%7.12 | 18%5.48 | 7%14.64 |
| Petrolul | 2%52.36 | 5%18.83 | 18%5.51 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
- D Petrolul vs UTA Arad 1-1
- W UTA Arad vs Petrolul 1-0
- W Petrolul vs UTA Arad 1-2
- W UTA Arad vs Petrolul 2-0
- W Petrolul vs UTA Arad 0-1
- W UTA Arad vs Petrolul 3-1
- D Petrolul vs UTA Arad 1-1
- W UTA Arad vs Petrolul 1-0
- D Petrolul vs UTA Arad 0-0
- L Petrolul vs UTA Arad 1-0
12 meetings in the data. Results shown from UTA Arad's side.