Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Slask Wroclaw | Draw | Piast Gliwice | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 29% | 26% | 46% |
| Elo model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Best price on offer | 2.70 | 3.65 | 2.50 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice are rated 73 points above Slask Wroclaw (1387 to 1314), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
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Home advantage Favours Slask Wroclaw
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Slask Wroclaw's chance of winning and takes the same from Piast Gliwice's.
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Attack against defence Favours Piast Gliwice
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.6. Slask Wroclaw score 0.8 a match against an average side (17th in Ekstraklasa); Piast Gliwice concede 1.6 (4th best defence).
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Last 5 matches Favours Piast Gliwice
Slask Wroclaw LWLLL, lost 21 rating points; Piast Gliwice DWDWL, gained 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
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Bookmakers' view Favours Slask Wroclaw
Bookmakers rate Slask Wroclaw higher than the model does: Slask Wroclaw 36% against the model's 29%, Piast Gliwice 38% against 46%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Piast Gliwice
Slask Wroclaw won 1, drew 3 and lost 4 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Slask WroclawPiast Gliwice
09/06
10/10
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Slask Wroclaw | Draw | Piast Gliwice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slask Wroclaw | 22%4.53 | 8%12.09 | 5%19.31 |
| Level | 6%15.70 | 14%7.28 | 19%5.26 |
| Piast Gliwice | 1%— | 3%38.61 | 22%4.51 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
- L Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice 1-3
- L Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw 2-0
- D Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw 2-2
- W Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice 1-0
- L Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice 0-1
- D Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw 1-1
- L Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice 1-3
- D Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw 1-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Slask Wroclaw's side.