Empoli
27%
Fair odds 3.72
Pisa
Model pick
48%
Fair odds 2.10
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Empoli | Draw | Pisa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 27% | 26% | 48% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Pisa
Pisa are rated 68 points above Empoli (1380 to 1312), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Empoli
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Empoli's chance of winning and takes the same from Pisa's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Pisa
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.6. Empoli score 0.8 a match against an average side (17th in Serie B); Pisa concede 1.4 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Pisa
Empoli DLLDL, lost 28 rating points; Pisa LDDWW, gained 15 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
EmpoliPisaEmpoli
5/10 over 2.5
10 scored
17 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/11
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/23
10/27
11/01
Pisa
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
15 conceded
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/11
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/25
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Empoli | Draw | Pisa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli | 17%6.02 | 6%16.69 | 4%26.67 |
| Level | 9%10.58 | 15%6.87 | 19%5.26 |
| Pisa | 1%75.19 | 4%25.38 | 25%3.94 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.