San Lorenzo
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.42Bookmakers 36%
Platense
25%
Fair odds 4.02Bookmakers 32%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| San Lorenzo | Draw | Platense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 41% | 34% | 25% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 36% | 33% | 32% |
| Best price on offer | 2.70 | 3.00 | 3.10 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours San Lorenzo
San Lorenzo are rated 32 points above Platense (1349 to 1317), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours San Lorenzo
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to San Lorenzo's chance of winning and takes the same from Platense's.
-
Attack against defence Favours San Lorenzo
Expected goals 1.0 to 0.7. San Lorenzo score 0.6 a match against an average side (28th in Liga Profesional); Platense concede 1.6 (18th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
San Lorenzo DDWWL, gained 6 rating points; Platense WWLDD, gained 17 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours San Lorenzo
Platense will have had 4 days' rest, San Lorenzo 6. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Platense
Bookmakers rate Platense higher than the model does: San Lorenzo 36% against the model's 41%, Platense 32% against 25%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours San Lorenzo
San Lorenzo won 5, drew 4 and lost 2 of the last 11 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
San LorenzoPlatenseSan Lorenzo
3/10 over 2.5
7 scored
10 conceded
08/22
09/01
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/03
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/31
Platense
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
11 conceded
08/23
08/31
09/04
09/12
09/20
10/05
10/11
10/17
10/23
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 17 | 14 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | San Lorenzo | Draw | Platense |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Lorenzo | 33%3.00 | 2%48.54 | 0%— |
| Level | 8%12.79 | 28%3.60 | 4%28.41 |
| Platense | 0%— | 3%29.50 | 22%4.65 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5San Lorenzo wins2Platense wins- W Platense vs San Lorenzo 0-1
- L Platense vs San Lorenzo 2-1
- L San Lorenzo vs Platense 0-1
- W San Lorenzo vs Platense 2-1
- W Platense vs San Lorenzo 1-2
- D Platense vs San Lorenzo 0-0
- D San Lorenzo vs Platense 1-1
- W San Lorenzo vs Platense 1-0
- W San Lorenzo vs Platense 2-0
- D San Lorenzo vs Platense 2-2
11 meetings in the data. Results shown from San Lorenzo's side.