Sheffield Weds
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.14
Plymouth
28%
Fair odds 3.57
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sheffield Weds | Draw | Plymouth | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 47% | 25% | 28% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Plymouth
Plymouth are rated 64 points above Sheffield Weds (1400 to 1336), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sheffield Weds
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sheffield Weds's chance of winning and takes the same from Plymouth's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sheffield Weds
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.2. Sheffield Weds score 1.0 a match against an average side (7th in League One); Plymouth concede 1.6 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Sheffield Weds DDLLW, lost 18 rating points; Plymouth DWLLW, lost 21 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Sheffield Weds
Sheffield Weds won 5, drew 0 and lost 3 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Sheffield WedsPlymouthSheffield Weds
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
10 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
11/01
Plymouth
6/10 over 2.5
17 scored
13 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sheffield Weds | Draw | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Weds | 29%3.41 | 5%18.42 | 2%45.87 |
| Level | 16%6.44 | 14%7.07 | 11%8.95 |
| Plymouth | 2%40.00 | 5%21.74 | 15%6.61 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Sheffield Weds wins3Plymouth wins- W Plymouth vs Sheffield Weds 0-3
- W Sheffield Weds vs Plymouth 4-0
- W Sheffield Weds vs Plymouth 1-0
- L Plymouth vs Sheffield Weds 3-0
- W Sheffield Weds vs Plymouth 1-0
- L Plymouth vs Sheffield Weds 2-1
- W Sheffield Weds vs Plymouth 4-2
- L Plymouth vs Sheffield Weds 3-0
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sheffield Weds's side.