Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Widzew Lodz | Draw | Pogon Szczecin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Elo model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Best price on offer | 2.20 | 3.75 | 3.05 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Pogon Szczecin
Pogon Szczecin are rated 76 points above Widzew Lodz (1419 to 1344), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Widzew Lodz
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Widzew Lodz's chance of winning and takes the same from Pogon Szczecin's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.3. Widzew Lodz score 0.8 a match against an average side (12th in Ekstraklasa); Pogon Szczecin concede 1.6 (5th best defence).
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Last 5 matches Favours Pogon Szczecin
Widzew Lodz LDDLD, lost 13 rating points; Pogon Szczecin LWWWW, gained 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Widzew Lodz
Bookmakers rate Widzew Lodz higher than the model does: Widzew Lodz 43% against the model's 36%, Pogon Szczecin 31% against 37%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Pogon Szczecin
Widzew Lodz won 0, drew 1 and lost 7 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Widzew LodzPogon Szczecin
08/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Widzew Lodz | Draw | Pogon Szczecin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Widzew Lodz | 26%3.83 | 7%15.02 | 3%36.50 |
| Level | 9%10.63 | 16%6.28 | 14%7.25 |
| Pogon Szczecin | 1%91.74 | 4%27.10 | 21%4.86 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
- L Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Lodz 1-0
- L Widzew Lodz vs Pogon Szczecin 1-2
- L Widzew Lodz vs Pogon Szczecin 0-4
- L Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Lodz 2-0
- L Widzew Lodz vs Pogon Szczecin 1-2
- L Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Lodz 2-1
- D Widzew Lodz vs Pogon Szczecin 3-3
- L Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Lodz 2-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Widzew Lodz's side.