Barnet
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.13
Port Vale
27%
Fair odds 3.77
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Barnet | Draw | Port Vale | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Elo model | 51% | 27% | 22% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Barnet
Barnet are rated 38 points above Port Vale (1286 to 1248), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Barnet
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Barnet's chance of winning and takes the same from Port Vale's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Barnet
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.1. Barnet score 0.8 a match against an average side (2nd in League Two); Port Vale concede 1.8 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Port Vale
Barnet DWDLW, lost 9 rating points; Port Vale WLDWW, gained 8 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
BarnetPort ValeBarnet
7/10 over 2.5
20 scored
14 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Port Vale
2/10 over 2.5
9 scored
11 conceded
08/29
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Barnet | Draw | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet | 24%4.18 | 3%30.03 | 1%— |
| Level | 20%5.09 | 15%6.48 | 8%12.05 |
| Port Vale | 4%25.19 | 7%15.02 | 18%5.61 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.