Austin FC
31%
Fair odds 3.22Bookmakers 22%
Portland Timbers
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.21Bookmakers 56%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Austin FC: 31% here, 22% with bookmakers; Portland Timbers: 45% here, 56% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Austin FC | Draw | Portland Timbers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 31% | 24% | 45% |
| Elo model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 22% | 22% | 56% |
| Best price on offer | 4.50 | 4.33 | 1.70 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers are rated 51 points above Austin FC (1340 to 1289), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Austin FC
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Austin FC's chance of winning and takes the same from Portland Timbers's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Portland Timbers
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.8. Austin FC score 0.7 a match against an average side (28th in MLS); Portland Timbers concede 2.1 (16th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Portland Timbers
Austin FC LLWLL, lost 22 rating points; Portland Timbers WWWDL, gained 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Portland Timbers
Bookmakers rate Portland Timbers higher than the model does: Austin FC 22% against the model's 31%, Portland Timbers 56% against 45%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Portland Timbers
Austin FC won 4, drew 2 and lost 6 of the last 12 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Austin FCPortland TimbersAustin FC
8/10 over 2.5
13 scored
21 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/25
10/29
10/31
Portland Timbers
7/10 over 2.5
16 scored
18 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/25
10/29
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 1-3
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Austin FC | Draw | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin FC | 22%4.55 | 8%12.89 | 6%17.30 |
| Level | 8%12.00 | 12%8.36 | 19%5.31 |
| Portland Timbers | 1%86.21 | 3%31.95 | 21%4.75 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Austin FC wins6Portland Timbers wins- W Portland Timbers vs Austin FC 1-2
- D Austin FC vs Portland Timbers 0-0
- L Portland Timbers vs Austin FC 1-0
- W Portland Timbers vs Austin FC 0-1
- L Austin FC vs Portland Timbers 0-2
- L Austin FC vs Portland Timbers 1-2
- D Portland Timbers vs Austin FC 2-2
- L Austin FC vs Portland Timbers 1-2
- L Portland Timbers vs Austin FC 1-0
- L Portland Timbers vs Austin FC 3-0
12 meetings in the data. Results shown from Austin FC's side.