Feyenoord
32%
Fair odds 3.15
Porto
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.28
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Feyenoord | Draw | Porto | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 32% | 24% | 44% |
| Elo model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Porto
Porto are rated 86 points above Feyenoord (1687 to 1602), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Feyenoord
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Feyenoord's chance of winning and takes the same from Porto's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Porto
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.7. Feyenoord score 1.7 a match against an average side (4th in Eredivisie); Porto concede 0.8 (1st best defence in Primeira Liga).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Porto
Feyenoord LDDLW, lost 18 rating points; Porto WWWLL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
FeyenoordPortoFeyenoord
6/10 over 2.5
24 scored
16 conceded
09/09
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
11/03
Porto
7/10 over 2.5
22 scored
11 conceded
09/04
09/08
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 0-2
- 1-0
- 1-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Feyenoord | Draw | Porto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | 21%4.78 | 7%14.33 | 5%20.70 |
| Level | 10%10.15 | 13%7.76 | 18%5.43 |
| Porto | 1%68.97 | 4%27.86 | 21%4.74 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.