Porto
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.11Bookmakers 57%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Porto: 47% here, 57% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Guimaraes | Draw | Porto | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 25% | 28% | 47% |
| Elo model | 17% | 25% | 57% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 19% | 24% | 57% |
| Best price on offer | 5.25 | 4.00 | 1.67 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Porto
Porto are rated 212 points above Guimaraes (1687 to 1475), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Guimaraes
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Guimaraes's chance of winning and takes the same from Porto's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Porto
Expected goals 1.0 to 1.5. Guimaraes score 1.2 a match against an average side (7th in Primeira Liga); Porto concede 0.8 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Guimaraes DWLDL, barely moved; Porto WWWLL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Guimaraes
Porto will have had 4 days' rest, Guimaraes 6. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Porto
Bookmakers rate Porto higher than the model does: Guimaraes 19% against the model's 25%, Porto 57% against 47%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Porto
Guimaraes won 1, drew 1 and lost 8 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
GuimaraesPorto
08/08
08/14
08/23
08/31
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/23
11/02
Porto
7/10 over 2.5
22 scored
11 conceded
09/04
09/08
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 51%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Guimaraes | Draw | Porto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | 14%7.23 | 5%21.51 | 2%43.67 |
| Level | 10%9.66 | 17%5.82 | 18%5.71 |
| Porto | 1%70.42 | 5%21.46 | 28%3.56 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
8Porto wins- L Guimaraes vs Porto 0-1
- L Porto vs Guimaraes 3-0
- D Porto vs Guimaraes 1-1
- L Guimaraes vs Porto 0-3
- W Porto vs Guimaraes 1-2
- L Guimaraes vs Porto 1-2
- L Porto vs Guimaraes 3-0
- L Guimaraes vs Porto 0-1
- L Guimaraes vs Porto 0-1
- L Porto vs Guimaraes 2-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Guimaraes's side.