Vitoria
6%
Fair odds 16.78
Porto
Model pick
80%
Fair odds 1.25
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Vitoria | Draw | Porto | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 6% | 14% | 80% |
| Elo model | 6% | 18% | 76% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Porto
Porto are rated 368 points above Vitoria (1687 to 1319), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Vitoria
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 4 points to Vitoria's chance of winning and takes the same from Porto's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Porto
Expected goals 0.6 to 2.5. Vitoria score 0.7 a match against an average side (21st in Brasileirão); Porto concede 0.8 (1st best defence in Primeira Liga).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Vitoria LDDLW, barely moved; Porto WWWLL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Vitoria
Porto will have had 4 days' rest, Vitoria 8. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
VitoriaPortoVitoria
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
15 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/08
10/11
10/20
10/24
10/31
Porto
7/10 over 2.5
22 scored
11 conceded
09/04
09/08
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-2
- 0-3
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-4
- 1-3
- 1-1
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 4 |
| 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Vitoria | Draw | Porto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria | 5%18.83 | 6%17.73 | 9%10.88 |
| Level | 1%— | 8%13.32 | 34%2.91 |
| Porto | 0%— | 0%— | 37%2.74 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.