Bolton
35%
Fair odds 2.84
Portsmouth
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.62
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Bolton | Draw | Portsmouth | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Elo model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Portsmouth
Portsmouth are rated 81 points above Bolton (1476 to 1394), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Bolton
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Bolton's chance of winning and takes the same from Portsmouth's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.4. Bolton score 1.1 a match against an average side (17th in Championship); Portsmouth concede 1.2 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Portsmouth
Bolton WLLDW, gained 12 rating points; Portsmouth WDWDW, gained 29 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Portsmouth
Bolton won 1, drew 2 and lost 3 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BoltonPortsmouthBolton
7/10 over 2.5
15 scored
21 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/23
10/31
11/03
Portsmouth
4/10 over 2.5
14 scored
8 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Bolton | Draw | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 21%4.69 | 6%18.12 | 3%38.91 |
| Level | 12%8.01 | 15%6.51 | 14%6.90 |
| Portsmouth | 2%51.81 | 5%21.14 | 22%4.64 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Bolton wins3Portsmouth wins- D Bolton vs Portsmouth 1-1
- L Portsmouth vs Bolton 2-0
- L Portsmouth vs Bolton 3-1
- W Bolton vs Portsmouth 3-0
- D Bolton vs Portsmouth 1-1
- L Portsmouth vs Bolton 1-0
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Bolton's side.