Cardiff
Model pick
65%
Fair odds 1.54
Preston
15%
Fair odds 6.57
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Cardiff | Draw | Preston | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 65% | 20% | 15% |
| Elo model | 56% | 26% | 18% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Cardiff
Cardiff are rated 72 points above Preston (1434 to 1362), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Cardiff
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Cardiff's chance of winning and takes the same from Preston's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Cardiff
Expected goals 2.2 to 1.0. Cardiff score 1.2 a match against an average side (8th in Championship); Preston concede 1.8 (24th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Cardiff
Cardiff DLWDW, gained 14 rating points; Preston LLDLL, lost 27 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Cardiff won 2, drew 3 and lost 3 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CardiffPrestonCardiff
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
16 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/04
Preston
6/10 over 2.5
9 scored
21 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Cardiff | Draw | Preston |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 36%2.74 | 3%34.97 | 1%— |
| Level | 23%4.27 | 11%9.20 | 5%20.20 |
| Preston | 5%18.83 | 6%18.18 | 10%10.08 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Cardiff wins3Preston wins- D Preston vs Cardiff 2-2
- L Cardiff vs Preston 0-2
- L Cardiff vs Preston 0-2
- W Preston vs Cardiff 1-2
- L Preston vs Cardiff 2-0
- D Cardiff vs Preston 0-0
- D Cardiff vs Preston 0-0
- W Preston vs Cardiff 1-2
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Cardiff's side.