West Ham
Model pick
83%
Fair odds 1.21
Preston
6%
Fair odds 17.95
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| West Ham | Draw | Preston | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 83% | 12% | 6% |
| Elo model | 70% | 21% | 9% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours West Ham
West Ham are rated 176 points above Preston (1538 to 1362), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours West Ham
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to West Ham's chance of winning and takes the same from Preston's.
-
Attack against defence Favours West Ham
Expected goals 3.0 to 0.7. West Ham score 1.6 a match against an average side (1st in Championship); Preston concede 1.8 (24th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours West Ham
West Ham DLLWW, barely moved; Preston LLDLL, lost 27 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
West HamPrestonWest Ham
8/10 over 2.5
28 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/11
09/19
10/09
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/04
Preston
6/10 over 2.5
9 scored
21 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 4-0
- 2-1
- 3-1
- 1-0
- 4-1
- 1-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | West Ham | Draw | Preston |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham | 46%2.18 | 1%90.91 | 0%— |
| Level | 30%3.36 | 6%16.42 | 2%64.52 |
| Preston | 7%13.42 | 4%25.06 | 4%24.63 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.